Oh crap
I
have to shave my head. The Australian -
The Australian - has given a
Vote Rudd editorial.
In fact, Uncle Rupert seems to be having a bob each way - Vote Rudd in the Oz,
Terror and
Courier Mail (that one I understand, supporting the local lads); Vote Howard in the
Herald-Scum and
'Tiser (can't find what he's saying down in Tassie).
Over at Fairfax,
The Age's cock is surprisingly soft while the
Smuh's pro-Rudd is probably the editorial with which I find myself in closest agreement. Apparently FIN is pro-Howard, which I guess is no huge surprise.
Hard to suss out Rup's agenda here other than covering all his bases. I honestly believed all his rags would sing from the same book as they did in 2004.
Almost as confusing are these bloody opinion polls -
14 point lead to Labor in Nielsen, but only a
four point lead according to Galaxy. I guess both are within a 2.5% margin of error, i.e. the average of both would be 54.5/45.5 on 2PP, which has been roughly the overall median since Rudd took over. On the plus side, Nielsen's sample is twice as big as Galaxy's - but on the down side, Galaxy was the closest poll at the last election when it put the Coalition at 52/48.
Look, for certain career issues that I can't really go into on a public blog I can't shave my head just at this very moment. But I will. I'm a girl of my word.
Fingers and toes we're cracking out the Queen Adelaide and footy franks tomorrow night!
Labels: 2007 federal election, election editorials, opinion polls
The Oz: Wonderful, fabulous news for that marvellous Mr Howard - Labor still miles ahead in the polls!
UPDATE: Methinks they doth protest too much?! First Den
pops on his crusty pants, and
now an entire editorial is devoted to, among other causes, slagging respected online psephologist
Peter Brent for daring to question the objectvity of Shanahan's analysis?
Desperate, desperate stuff.
I won't dignify the trash by reproducing at length, but just a couple of choice cuts in this self-serving ode to delusion worth a laff:
Smug, self assured, delusional swagger is no substitute for getting it right.
I KNOW they had Janet Albrechtsen in mind when they wrote this. I just KNOW it.
As a newspaper we don't know who we will support at the federal election.
Hear it here first, an iron-clad, core-promise QP guarantee: I will shave my head if the Australian gives a Vote Labor editorial at this year's election. I'd even go so far as to say I'd shave my head if any Murdoch rag gives a Vote Labor editorial. And trust me, I don't look good with a shaved head - I have these creepy, bumpy sections in the back of my skull - but I am so completely 100% confident of what I'll read in the Oz's ed section on election day that I can make this pledge.
You only ever react so violently to criticism when consciously or otherwise you know there's a ring of truth to it; never before today has the Oz demonstrated so effectively how true this is.
***************************************************************************
You gotta love the Govt Gazette, you really do*. The
latest Newspoll makes painfully clear that the Howard government has failed spectacularly to narrow the gaping lead Labor has over them, and how does the GG spin it?
News report: 'Howard checks Rudd's march.' Riiiiight.
Dennis Shanananananahan: Howard-friendly BBQ metaphors - with a particularly uncomfortable focus on sausages.
Edimatorial: 'Strong leadership has got voters' attention'. Everybody all together now: Julia Roberts at the polo in Pretty Woman. Wo! Wo! Wo! Wo!
You know what? And this probably only confirms absolutely what a complete nerd I am - but I woke up this morning and literally the first thing I thought of was how the GG was going to spin the latest Newspoll in the event that their Coalition buds were still trailing so badly. And sure enough, the case in point was waiting for me at my work desk interweb:
THE Government has successfully shifted the political dynamic, checking the personal appeal of Kevin Rudd and setting a series of future traps for Labor.
Ahh -
this must be that liberal media bias I've heard so much about, right there.
The 56-44 2PP result with no increase in Coalition primary support is completely eclipsed, of course, by discussion of the high numbers of both Labor and Liberal supporters who support Howard's recent NT action. Which is lovely, but doesn't really correspond to the GG's key message that people are growing tired of the Kevin Rudd Novelty and finally coming back to kindly Uncle John, finally realising There's No Place Like Home after all - their unproven hypothesis for the last six months now.
The Iraq poll doesn't do much for Howard either - 31% of respondents wanting the troops to 'remain in Iraq for as long as the Iraqi government wants them to stay' versus 63% of respondents who want the troops to return by mid-2008, immediately or some other definite date. In Oz, though, the Wizard argues that Labor 'risks putting itself on the wrong side of the Iraq debate' through its policy of a fixed troop withdrawal date.
The fuck? You really wouldn't want the Oz doing your tax return right now, would you? They could probably turn a thousand-dollar refund into a two-thousand dollar debt if John Howard told them to.
I must admit, I'm ever so slightly less confident about Howard winning this election than I was 24 hours ago. Today's Newspoll only reinforces a steady, consistent trend and the perception that more and more voters have stopped listening or paying attention to Howard.
However, the smart money - literally - is still on Howard, with Portlandbet, who have
opened a book on every one of the 150 federal seats to be contested, calling a close Coalition victory. I tend to think that 16 seats is just the tiniest too far of bridges for Rudd.
You'd have to think, though, that if Howard does lose this election, in the face of a strong economy, paranoid international climate and rusted-on Liberal hack monkeys banging away at the MSM's typewriters for him, history will regard him as one of our greatest - well, losers.
(*You don't really have to, don't worry.)Labels: 2007 federal election, Government Gazette, opinion polls
Round 12: FIGHT!
UPDATE: The
HREOC report is unleashed.
*******************************************************************************
(Title comes from me recently playing Mortal Kombat 2 on PS3 and rediscovering my inner 12yo. Not in that way. Eww.)
Anticipation of responses to
this latest finding on gay marriage - 57% in support, but even more encouraging, 71% in favour of full de facto equality:
1. The survey was commissioned by GetUp!, a Labor front organisation designed for the sole purpose of undermining the Howard government. Insert additional cliches of 'David Hicks fan club', 'climate change fundamentalists', 'friends of Middle Eastern terrorists' etc here.GetUp! certainly did commission the poll - nevertheless,
Galaxy did all the work. 1100 people across all States and Territories. And the Murdoch rags - particularly the Gazette - had no trouble believing
the 100% accuracy and integrity of Galaxy when it recently highlighted a resurgence in voter support for Howard.
2. Stupid poll, polling 16 and 17yos who don't even vote.Again, true - but the 16-24yo group were the strongest supporters of same-sex couple equality - 82%, no less. Sure, Howard doesn't need to worry about them now, but assuming he wins this election, he may have to come the 2010 election when they're voting age.
Plus, they simply reflect what is already known: The strongest anti-queer prejudices lie with the older generations, and are dying a slow but inevitable death.
3. John Howard isn't driven by polls - he's driven by what's right.Pwhahahaha.
Heheheheh.
Pfffft.
Still, as the poll-driven back-pedaller he is he won't resile from this issue. A poll commissioned tomorrow could reveal a million Australians supporting gay marriage, but unless a/ they're all in marginal seats, and b/ it's an issue not only do they support, but they support strongly enough that it could potentially change their vote, he'll stick to his homophobia, which to his credit, he believes in personally as well as exploits for political mileage.
It's lovely that so many people support same-sex couple equality, it really is. But very few decide to vote/not vote for Howard based solely on this issue. He knows this and knows he can get away mobilising the religious right vote instead of doing his proper duty as an elected representative and reforming existing discriminatory law - after all, 4 election wins can't be wrong.
This poll also won't change anything with Labor, at least not before this election. Kevin Rudd's pitch since winning the leadership has always been poaching the dreaded 'aspirationals' - i.e. shifting to the right just enough to steal back capricious, interest rate-sensitive voters in outer suburban seats. He doesn't need to do anything for GLBTI voters other than the barest minimum so that there is at least some point of difference between Labor and Liberal - but otherwise, he can take most of our votes for granted. Sure, we might vote Green or independent above Labor but those of us concerned with equality will eventually preference Labor above Liberal - i.e. vote Labor.
It would be nice to think this poll, combined with tomorrow's launch of
HREOC's Same-Sex: Same Entitlements report, will trigger a new groundswell of support and desire to act. But we've made that mistake with this government so many times before (Warren Entsch, anyone?), and with less than 6 months before an election, the only imperative the Liberals will have to act on this will be to save
Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth.
Encouraging poll results for sure - and cheers to GetUp! for getting the poll...umm...up - but not enough for anything to change. Not this year, anyway.
Labels: GLBTI, John Howard, Labor, opinion polls, queer law reform
Sitting on a poll
If all else fails,
play the puppy-dog eyes. Sorry J-Ho, ain't gonna work. If you lose this election it's your own fault for not 'graciously' (I'm being generous) handing the leadership over to Costello last year and putting yourself out to pasture when you should have done.
However, I'm still far from convinced you will, in fact, lose this election.
Why? It's all about the
psephology. What a nice word is psephology. Psephology. Say it out loud a couple of times. Psephology. Now throw in the silent p, if you haven't already been doing so, just for fun. Psephology.
I digress.
Opinion polls should be neither instantly dismissed nor taken as gospel. The pollies take them seriously even though they pretend not to. A good way to determine their accuracy is to compare what was the final opinion poll recorded on the last day before the election, with the actual results. Very rough summary for 2004 (rounding up): Actual result was Coalition 53, Labor 47 on 2pp. Nielsen called it 52/48 in their final poll, Newspoll 50/50. Not bad, but not spot-on.
I recently consulted with psephologist extraordinaire William Bowe over at
The Poll Bludger to get an unbiased reality check on opinion polls that currently have Howard judged, juried and executed.
(M)ost poll-watchers will tell you that a 52-48 result is the measure of what Labor will need for a clear win...
Pollsters generally say they have a 3 per cent margin of error within a 95% confidence interval, which means they will be within 3% of accuracy 95% of the
time.
Now, there needs to be uniform swing of 3.3% for the Coalition to lose its majority, and 4.6% for Labor to win a clear majority. Or, in simpler terms, using this
fantastic 2007 election calculator, Labor will need to win at least 52.5% of the 2pp vote this year to form majority government. This equates to Labor winning 18 seats - 6 in NSW, 3 in SA, 2 in Victoria, Queensland, WA and Tasmania and one in the NT -
as well as not losing any seats they currently hold. Were this to actually happen, Coalition casualties would include Howard, Malcolm Turnbull and Jackie Kelly, among others.
Not to mention, this would also mean Labor holds onto two WA seats, Swan and Cowan, to which it's desperately clinging with a margin of less than 1%. This in a state where all the kids are into AWAs but potential Labor Mum isn't so keen to let them play with them.
You can see how this is a really, really, really big ask.
Given the 3% margin of error, the major opinion polls will still need to have Labor on at least 55% of the 2pp at their final pre-election polls before I start to believe any 'annihilation' will take place.
Sure, there are a bunch of Howard voters right now who are giving serious thought to offering the Kruddster a shot, but 6 months is still a very long way to go. Howard will still have plenty of bribes and other rabbits, no matter what he otherwise claims, and don't forget that around 30% of voters don't make up their mind with absolutely certainty about who to vote for until the last week - and the overwhelming majority opt for the incumbent government, particularly when the economy is performing strongly (1949 and 1996 elections being exeptions to the rule).
So let's all keep a calm head for the moment. Re-read that card you carry around in your pocket to remind yourself, 'Always say/do the opposite of what John Howard says/does'. And we'll talk on election day.
Labels: 2007 federal election, John Howard, opinion polls, psephology
