Tuesday, November 20, 2007

In which QP diverts from the 10 reasons to offer an election prediction...

...And believe me, it makes me as sad to type it as it does (most of) you to read it:

The Coalition will just win this election.

This prediction flies in the face of very wise men who know far more about psephology than I ever will. It's possible I'm making this prediction as a subconscious defence mechanism, just to brace myself for the absolute worst conceivable outcome even in the face of such broad confidence that November 24 will be Howard's last day as PM. Just remember, we didn't brace ourselves for the worst in 2004 other than a resolving ourselves to a Howard victory - then the bastards got the Senate.

The consolation I offer is that I believe a Labor/Green Senate majority is conceivable (and no more Fundies First will sprout up), so at least some stoppers will be put on the extreme Howard agenda. But come November 25 I think at best it will still be too soon to know who's won, and at worst we'll know for sure that Kevin Rudd is still Opposition Leader.

I'm basing this on a state-by-state, seat-by-seat analysis, rather than assuming that the big swing Labor will no doubt achieve necessarily equates to winning a raft of marginals. I think quite a few very safe Liberal seats will become merely safe, a few safe Liberal seats will become marginal and some marginal Labor seats will become safe - but I keep crunching the numbers in my head based on an aggregate of all reports, and I just cannot come up with 16 seats for Labor to win.

New South Wales
1. Eden-Monaro
2. Dobell
3. Lindsday
4. Macquarie

The Libs will narrowly hold onto Bennelong, Wentworth, Page, Robertson and Paterson. Net gain of 4 to Labor.

Status quo - neither Labor nor the Libs will gain or lose their existing seats.

5. Bonner
6. Moreton
7. Blair

Libs to narrowly hold Herbert and Longman. Net gain of 3 to Labor.

South Australia
8. Wakefield
9. Kingston
10. Makin

God love my home state - this is the safest horse to bet on for a strong anti-Howard vote. Labor will come close but not quite nab Sturt and Boothby.

11. Bass
12. Braddon

Nice realignment of the uniform Labor state here.

Northern Territory
13. Solomon

Western Australia, the most Howard-loving state of all, is where things get tricky. The Libs have based their electoral strategy on holding on to their marginals and winning a Labor seat or two here, and I have no reason to believe this won't happen.

Western Australia
14. Hasluck, BUT:
- 13. Loss of Cowan. No net gain to Labor. (Come on - the Libs have to win at least one seat this election.)

Net gain to Labor: 13 seats. Final result: Lib/ALP/Independents 75/73/2. Objectively, still a very good performance from Labor, who will comfortably win the popular 2PP vote, but just not quite good enough.

Believe me - I've never wanted to be wrong about anything more than I want to be about this.

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At 20/11/07 6:17 pm, Blogger Khay said...

I live in Page and believe you me the swingers are going for Labor,

At 20/11/07 9:11 pm, Blogger Jacob said...


I hope, for the sake of my sanity, that your election prediction will be as spot-on as the one you made about Voldemort being Harry's dad.

At 20/11/07 9:21 pm, Blogger Sam said...


But nicely played :) (Deep down, I hope I'm as spot-on as that too)

At 20/11/07 10:15 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As much as i hate this government with a passion the reality is that no electorate in the world has ever turfed out a government when the economy is going gang busters.

Sadly people think about there hip pocket - not what is morally right.

Polls mean absolute crap, i know if was asked i probably wouldn't be completely honest about who I;m voting for.

What's the saying "It's the economy Stupid"

At 6/12/07 1:17 pm, Blogger cvm said...

I love how wrong we all were. Still.

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