Thursday, September 13, 2007

Don't believe the polls...

...But believe the punters - they usually get it right. Labor leads 78-70-2, and the lead is growing. Seats now starting to fall in Victoria and possible losses in WA buffered. Cause for cautious optimism amidst the pro-Labor polling orgy.

This 'I'm committing...sort of' commitment is a bit of a noodle-scratcher. It would seem Lackey Downer's sussed out for J-Ho that Pey-Pey still doesn't have the numbers now for a last-minute leadership grab, would in the event that they happen to win this election.

(PS - Pey-Pey's sook about not getting an invitation to the secret treehouse meeting? Priceless.)

But I can't see how J-Ho's announcement works to his advantage in Bennelong. He's freely passing on to Maxine McKew campaigning material you couldn't buy. 'Why vote for John Howard now when you'll have to vote again in a by-election in 18 months' time?' (Voters hate by-elections with a fiery passion and almost always vote in the opposing candidate.) 'Why vote for a candidate who has no genuine interest in serving your electorate for a full term?' And so forth.

Imagine this statement causing him to lose Bennelong, while his government just wins the election. Howard is not a stupid man by any stretch, but this seems like a conceivable outcome that he's personally helped to orchestrate. Woopsy doodle.

He must be 100% convinced both he and the Libs are going to win - which makes the conspiracy nut in wonder what he knows that the rest of us don't. Sitting on a terrorism/immigration scare campaign? The electoral rigging to block out a large chunk of non-Liberal voters, perhaps? Or some other prearranged election day rigging? I wouldn't put anything - anything - past this government, which reverts to its most vicious (or rather, its truest side starts showing) when its back is against the wall.

I'm never more nervous that when it appears J-Ho is making mistakes, because most times it's exactly that - an illusion.

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At 13/9/07 2:24 pm, Anonymous Andrew said...

Both Sportingbet & Centerbet contradict Portlandbet and have the coalition favoured in Herbert & La Trobe.

If you also take out Deakin (only Portlandbet is covering this electorate and it is on the same odds as La Trobe) then the split is 75-73-2 and Tony Windsor suddenly becomes becomes very powerful.

You are right - you shouldn't believe the polls.

At 13/9/07 2:31 pm, Blogger Sam said...

I thought Portland was the only one to do a seat-by-seat book, andrew? That's why I tend to follow them more closely than the others.

My fear is not about Tony Windsor holding a great position of power in the Reps, but rather Fundies First holding power in the Senate. Potentially far more damaging (not to mention much more well-resourced and cashed-up through its Assemblies of God parent company than one lone independent).

At 15/9/07 12:17 pm, Blogger Stuart said...

Couldn't agree with you more, Sam. Something just smells off here. The Libs are potentially staring down the face of a defeat if the polls are to be believed, but Howard just doesn't seem 'scared' enough or something. You're right... he knows something we don't, and I'm not comforted by that thought one bit.

At 15/9/07 8:59 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

just one point, I believe howard has stated he will serve out his whole term for bennelong, just not as PM.


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